TY - JOUR
T1 - The future tourism mobility of the world population: emission growth versus climate policy
AU - Dubois, G.
AU - Peeters, PM
AU - Ceron, J.P.
AU - Gössling, S.
PY - 2011/12
Y1 - 2011/12
N2 - Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO
2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.
AB - Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO
2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.
U2 - 10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
DO - 10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
M3 - Article
SN - 0965-8564
VL - 45
SP - 1031
EP - 1042
JO - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
JF - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
IS - 10
ER -