TY - JOUR
T1 - Long lockdowns and rainy days: Modeling the interactive roles of weather, behavior, and restrictions in COVID-19 transmission in the Netherlands
AU - Mitas, Ondrej
AU - Kokkinou, A
PY - 2021/3/20
Y1 - 2021/3/20
N2 - Extant research on the role of weather in COVID-19 has produced ambiguous results and much methodological debate. Following advice emerging from this methodological debate, we take a step further in modeling effects of weather on COVID-19 spread by including interactions between weather, behavior, baseline cases, and restrictions in our model. Our model was based on secondary infection, hospitalization, restriction, weather, and mobility data per day nested with safety region in the Netherlands. Our findings show significant but inconsistent interactions. The robust effects of weather on COVID-19 spread persisted over and above these interactions, highlighting the need to account for weather with nuance and caution in public policy, communication, and forecasting
AB - Extant research on the role of weather in COVID-19 has produced ambiguous results and much methodological debate. Following advice emerging from this methodological debate, we take a step further in modeling effects of weather on COVID-19 spread by including interactions between weather, behavior, baseline cases, and restrictions in our model. Our model was based on secondary infection, hospitalization, restriction, weather, and mobility data per day nested with safety region in the Netherlands. Our findings show significant but inconsistent interactions. The robust effects of weather on COVID-19 spread persisted over and above these interactions, highlighting the need to account for weather with nuance and caution in public policy, communication, and forecasting
U2 - 10.1101/2021.03.16.21253684
DO - 10.1101/2021.03.16.21253684
M3 - Article
JO - MedRxiv
JF - MedRxiv
ER -