Envisioning Tourism in 2030: on target to net zero.

Project: Research

Project Details


In the Glasgow declaration (2021), the tourism sector promised to reduce its CO2 emissions by 50% and reduce them to zero by 2050. The urgency is felt in the sector, and small steps are made at company level, but there is a lack of insight and overview of effective measures at global level.

This study focuses on the development of a necessary mix of actions and interventions that the tourism sector can undertake to achieve the goal of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 towards zero emissions by 2050. The study contributes to a better understanding of the paths that the tourism sector can take to achieve this and their implications for the sector. The aim of the report is to spark discussion, ideas and, above all, action.

The study provides a tool that positively engages the sector in the near and more distant future, inspires discussion, generates ideas, and drives action. In addition, there will be a guide that shows the big picture and where the responsibilities lie for the reduction targets. Finally, the researchers come up with recommendations for policymakers, companies, and lobbyists at an international and European level.

In part 1 of the study, desk research is used to lay the foundation for the study. Here, the contribution of tourism to global greenhouse gas emissions is mapped out, as well as the image and reputation of the sector on climate change. In addition, this section describes which initiatives in terms of, among other things, coalitions and declarations have already been taken on a global scale to form a united front against climate change.

In part 2, 40 policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the sector are evaluated in a simulation. For this simulation, the GTTMdyn simulation model, developed by Paul Peeters from BUAS, is used which works on a global scale and shows the effect of measures on emissions, tourism, transport, economy, and behaviour. In this simulation, the researchers can 'test' measures and learn from mistakes. In the end one or more scenarios will; be developed that reach the goals of 50% reduction in 2030 and zero emissions in 2050.

In part 3, the various actions that should lead to the reduction targets are tested against the impacts on the consequences for the global tourism economy, its role in providing leisure and business opportunities and the consequences for certain destinations and groups of industry stakeholders. This part will be concluded with two workshops with industry experts to reflect on the results of the simulation.

Part 4 reports the results of the study including an outline of the consequences of possibly not achieving the goal. With this, the researchers want to send a warning signal to stakeholders who may be resistant to participating in the transition.
Effective start/end date1/07/2231/12/22


  • CELTH, NBTC, Travel Foundation


  • tourism
  • transport
  • aviation
  • climate change
  • mitigation
  • scenario
  • future
  • zero-emissions


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